Future Shocks!

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Future Shocks!

Postby triers on Wed Jan 06, 2010 1:01 pm

Future Shock is a book written by the sociologist and futurist Alvin Toffler in 1970.

Future shock is also a term for a certain psychological state of individuals and entire societies, introduced by Toffler in his book of the same name. Toffler's shortest definition of future shock is a personal perception of "too much change in too short a period of time".


So obviously this is the topic about Future Shocks - changes that will be influencing significantly our future :!: :arrow: :?:
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Future Shocks!

Postby triers on Wed Jan 06, 2010 5:39 pm

Here is a suggested list for the:

Ten Technologies That Will Rock 2010

1. The Tablet

2. Geo

3. Realtime Search

4. Chrome OS

5. HTML5

6. Mobile Video

7. Augmented Reality

8. Mobile Transactions

9. Android

10. Social CRM

8-)
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Re: Future Shocks!

Postby surfer on Sun Jan 17, 2010 12:59 pm

Here what interesting is that, technology development often overtakes society's and it happens that people are not ready for it and feel some kind of disconnected. Take a simple example, elderly people are not very good or even can't use computers, mobile phones and other devices, although this technology might be with us for some 10 or more years already.

Another thing - technology gets very strongly incorporated in our communication and, although it is good that people can get in touch easier and faster, on the other hand, we are getting more and more disconnected from each other by replacing face-to-face communication with online, mobile, etc. communication.

There's some kind of discrepancy as how fast technology develops and how fast society could accept it.

As for the list above, I'd place "Augmented Reality" first because, I think, it would be a huge shock when virtual reality enters our lives and gets mixed with "real" reality. ;)
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The Paradigm Shifts

Postby triers on Sun Jan 17, 2010 4:02 pm

I agree with you, and actually I'd like to give an explanation of this through the concept of the so called Paradigm Shift:

Paradigm shift (or revolutionary science) is the term first used by Thomas Kuhn in his influential book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962) to describe a change in basic assumptions within the ruling theory of science. It is in contrast to his idea of normal science.

The term paradigm shift, as a change in a fundamental model of events, has since become widely applied to many other realms of human experience as well, even though Kuhn himself restricted the use of the term to the hard sciences. According to Kuhn, "A paradigm is what members of a scientific community, and they alone, share." (The Essential Tension, 1977).


Yes, here the term is used mainly referring to the Scientific Community and understandings but there are other uses of Paradigm Shift, analogical to this phenomenon:

Handa, M.L. (1986) introduced the idea of "social paradigm" in the context of social sciences. He identified the basic components of a social paradigm. Like Kuhn, Handa addressed the issue of changing paradigm; the process popularly known as "paradigm shift".

....

Another use of the word paradigm is in the sense of Weltanschauung (German for world view). For example, in social science, the term is used to describe the set of experiences, beliefs and values that affect the way an individual perceives reality and responds to that perception. Social scientists have adopted the Kuhnian phrase "paradigm shift" to denote a change in how a given society goes about organizing and understanding reality. A “dominant paradigm” refers to the values, or system of thought, in a society that are most standard and widely held at a given time.


So we can clearly observe in history the coming and going, in shortening intervals of time, the dominance of different paradigms. But here is an interesting question indeed - can one paradigm be applied to all of society, to all of people? I would say: NO!

As in all social groups the can never be a 100% majority and uniformity in perception, thinking and acting - which is due to many factors of course - take just 2-3 like person's age, social status and personal character and you have a large fragmentation.

There is a book by Mark Penn examining exactly how this micro group structures or microtrends work:

His book, Microtrends, published by Hachette Book Group USA, examines how small ideas can catch fire and lead to big changes. For example, Penn shows how a mere one percent of the American public, or 3 million people, can create a “microtrend” capable of launching a major business or even a new cultural movement, changing commercial, political and social landscapes.


So maybe paradigm shifts are always driven this way - forming a microtrend which eventually becomes spread enough among other groups to be considered significant and shared among majority of micro trend groups.

And yet there is always the micro structures, unique in its charecteteristics forming the big picture - very much like a jigsaw puzzle :!:
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Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us

Postby triers on Sun Feb 14, 2010 4:34 am

Let me add this 2005 video by TED and one of my favorite visionaries:

Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

Inventor, entrepreneur and visionary Ray Kurzweil explains in abundant, grounded detail why, by the 2020s, we will have reverse-engineered the human brain and nanobots will be operating your consciousness.


Plus a newer video again from TED:

Ray Kurzweil: A university for the coming singularity :idea:
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